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February 29th, 2024

Metals prices jumped Thursday as treasury yields pulled back on the latest inflation data. The core personal consumption expenditure price index rose 0.4% in January and 2.8% year-over-year, which was in line with expectations.

This was a welcomed change for investors after CPI showed a sudden jump in prices last month, leading to a decline in equity and metals markets. While a March rate cut is still extremely unlikely, this latest data helped boost the likelihood of Fed cuts starting in June.

FideliTrade Market Update: February 29, 2024.
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February 13, 2024

Both equities and metals markets are getting slammed Tuesday after CPI data showed inflation remained stubbornly high in January with both CPI and core CPI coming in hotter than expected. The data gives credence to the Fed’s projected guidance of waiting well into the second half of 2024 to begin cutting rates. Gold slipped below $2,000 to hit a 2-month low and the Dow is down 500 points, on pace for its worst day of 2024.

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February 1st, 2024

Both stocks and metals traded lower Wednesday before the Fed decision where they predictably left rates unchanged. Losses then accelerated during Fed Chair Powell’s press conference when he stated the economy likely won’t be ready for a rate cut in March at their next meeting. Traders had priced in a 90% chance of a March rate cut as recently as a month ago, causing a sharp pullback in equities Wednesday afternoon. The Dow shed 317 points and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped 1.6% and 2.2% respectively.

January 29th, 2024

Stocks rose Monday leading to the S&P 500 closing at a new record high as a decline in US Treasury Q1 borrowing forecasts drove equities up and bond yields down. Gold rallied today as well and is currently trading about 1% above last week’s settlement price as falling bond yields helped boost the metal. The FOMC’s first meeting of 2024 is this week where rates are overwhelmingly expected to remain unchanged. However, any guidance for what to expect in March will likely rattle markets.

January 18th, 2024

Metals and stocks drifted lower Wednesday as investors continued to digest mixed inflation data from last week. CPI showed prices unexpectedly jumped in December while PPI showed they fell more than expected. The effects of this data on future Fed policy remain unclear, but recent comments from Fed officials hint that a rate cut in March is becoming less likely. Gold is down about 2% since Friday’s settlement while stocks shed about 0.5% on Wednesday.

December 8, 2023

After rising to a record high Sunday evening, gold shed 3.5% this week to post its first weekly loss in a month. Silver performed even worse, falling nearly 10% in the same period. Much of these losses came on Friday after a strong employment report gives the Fed reason to possibly hold interest rates higher for longer or even raise rates an additional time if the labor market remains hot in the coming months. Stocks rose about 0.50% Friday, shaking off fears of tighter Fed policy and are on pace to eke out a positive week after today’s gains.

November 17, 2023

Gold and silver rose 2.3% and 6.5% respectively this week as cooling inflation data pushed bond yields lower and metals higher. Stocks closed Friday marginally in the green but gained about 2% for the week as strong earnings and the increasing likelihood of no additional Fed rate hikes led the rally. Fed minutes due out next week could give better insight into current Fed sentiment, however, given this week’s CPI and PPI, their thinking may be more dovish than the minutes reveal. 

November 15, 2023

Gold and silver are up about 2% and 5% respectively this week as inflation data came in better than expected, suggesting the Fed is done with rate hikes. CPI came in flat in October and core-CPI hit a 2-year low, rising just 0.2% for the month. Treasury yields plunged while stocks moved in tandem with metals, soaring Tuesday and Wednesday on the promising inflation data as well as strong earnings. The Dow is up 4 days in a row, trading at its highest level since mid-August.

November 1, 2023

Gold and silver rose modestly Wednesday after the Fed’s decision to leave rates unchanged. The Fed emphasized the importance of hitting the 2% inflation target and suggested that could be achieved without further hikes; however, also stated that markets should prepare for interest rates to remain higher for longer than previously projected. Stocks responded positively to both the decision and Powell’s press conference, with the three major indices closing firmly in the green. Bonds rallied this afternoon, dropping yields and further boosting metals and equities.

October 27, 2023

Gold closed above $2,000 for the first time since May as recession fears resurfaced amid less-than-stellar earnings from Wall Street and worries about declining Q4 GDP. The S&P 500 shed 0.5% Friday to enter correction territory, down 10.3% from this year’s high in July. Metals and equities moved in tandem over the past few years, but this week showed a divergence from that trend as escalating tensions in the Middle East and increasing recession worries at home have revitalized their appeal as haven assets.