Customer Buying Picks Up; A COMEX Surprise

May 1, 2025

• Gold prices achieve a new high in real terms to top off a 2-week, $540 rally.
• Silver prices falter amidst economic uncertainty and weak consumer confidence.
• Customer buying rises to match selling volumes for the first time in well over a year.
• Volume in micro gold futures soar.

Fanned by tariff-induced wide swings in the stock market, a slumping dollar, questions about Federal Reserve independence, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, gold prices made new all-time highs (again) in April.

Adjusting for inflation, this time they exceeded the January 1980 high of $850. On COMEX, gold futures briefly traded as high as $3,509.90 on the 22nd before falling back. Prices increased 5.63% for the month. At FideliTrade, buying during the month increased enough to match the customer selling. This has not happened in over a year.

Silver prices shed 3.20%. Likely, economic uncertainty is holding back the silver price compared to gold’s. The gold:silver ratio hit 100 in April, a level not seen in 5 years.

The gold price rally has made the notional value of the 100 oz. contract cumbersome for some traders. In the last year, the 10 oz. contract has been the beneficiary, with average daily volume in April really taking off to over 286,000 contracts. A surprising benefit to CME, which might otherwise have seen volumes in the gold complex rise less.

In the 100 oz. gold contract in April, there were heavy physical deliveries. Of note, three-fourths of the notices occurred April 1 or 2 – on or before “Liberation Day.” April deliveries were fewer than February’s (the most recent active contract).

Despite a decline of more than 2 million oz. of gold, COMEX vaults remain quite full at 41.4 million oz. With the demise of COMEX premiums, metal has been flowing out of New York area vaults to other parts of the world where gold is in demand, such as China and London.

Looking Ahead

• July 8, 2025: Will the administration strike key trade deals by the last day of the 90-day tariff pause? President Trump excluded Chinese products from the pause, just like Mexican and Canadian products that fall outside the tri-lateral neighbor agreement.
• New normal? President Trump has speedily reset Washington’s role at home and abroad in his First 100 Days. Bridgewater Associates says this “new reality” — the pursuit of trade surpluses and protectionism — puts the traditional portfolio at risk.
• Interest rates: The Fed next meets on May 6–7. President Trump has gone public twice with negative comments about Chair Powell. Can the Fed do its job effectively against this backdrop?
• Volatile gold prices: Options market makers suggest volatility may calm down, allowing the market to digest macro news more easily.

Jennifer Ropiak is a precious metals market specialist with over 30 years’ experience, including twenty in trading (15 at Morgan Stanley). She is the founding director of Trusted Partner Metals – an independent consultancy whose clients typically are keen to enter or increase their footprint in precious metals. Currently, Jennifer is advising the World Gold Council on their initiative to increase retail gold demand globally. Jennifer is a Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst and a graduate of Cornell University.

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