Commentaries

February 29th, 2024

Metals prices jumped Thursday as treasury yields pulled back on the latest inflation data. The core personal consumption expenditure price index rose 0.4% in January and 2.8% year-over-year, which was in line with expectations.

This was a welcomed change for investors after CPI showed a sudden jump in prices last month, leading to a decline in equity and metals markets. While a March rate cut is still extremely unlikely, this latest data helped boost the likelihood of Fed cuts starting in June.

FideliTrade Market Update: February 29, 2024.
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February 13, 2024

Both equities and metals markets are getting slammed Tuesday after CPI data showed inflation remained stubbornly high in January with both CPI and core CPI coming in hotter than expected. The data gives credence to the Fed’s projected guidance of waiting well into the second half of 2024 to begin cutting rates. Gold slipped below $2,000 to hit a 2-month low and the Dow is down 500 points, on pace for its worst day of 2024.

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February 1st, 2024

Both stocks and metals traded lower Wednesday before the Fed decision where they predictably left rates unchanged. Losses then accelerated during Fed Chair Powell’s press conference when he stated the economy likely won’t be ready for a rate cut in March at their next meeting. Traders had priced in a 90% chance of a March rate cut as recently as a month ago, causing a sharp pullback in equities Wednesday afternoon. The Dow shed 317 points and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped 1.6% and 2.2% respectively.

January 29th, 2024

Stocks rose Monday leading to the S&P 500 closing at a new record high as a decline in US Treasury Q1 borrowing forecasts drove equities up and bond yields down. Gold rallied today as well and is currently trading about 1% above last week’s settlement price as falling bond yields helped boost the metal. The FOMC’s first meeting of 2024 is this week where rates are overwhelmingly expected to remain unchanged. However, any guidance for what to expect in March will likely rattle markets.

January 18th, 2024

Metals and stocks drifted lower Wednesday as investors continued to digest mixed inflation data from last week. CPI showed prices unexpectedly jumped in December while PPI showed they fell more than expected. The effects of this data on future Fed policy remain unclear, but recent comments from Fed officials hint that a rate cut in March is becoming less likely. Gold is down about 2% since Friday’s settlement while stocks shed about 0.5% on Wednesday.

December 8, 2023

After rising to a record high Sunday evening, gold shed 3.5% this week to post its first weekly loss in a month. Silver performed even worse, falling nearly 10% in the same period. Much of these losses came on Friday after a strong employment report gives the Fed reason to possibly hold interest rates higher for longer or even raise rates an additional time if the labor market remains hot in the coming months. Stocks rose about 0.50% Friday, shaking off fears of tighter Fed policy and are on pace to eke out a positive week after today’s gains.

November 17, 2023

Gold and silver rose 2.3% and 6.5% respectively this week as cooling inflation data pushed bond yields lower and metals higher. Stocks closed Friday marginally in the green but gained about 2% for the week as strong earnings and the increasing likelihood of no additional Fed rate hikes led the rally. Fed minutes due out next week could give better insight into current Fed sentiment, however, given this week’s CPI and PPI, their thinking may be more dovish than the minutes reveal. 

November 15, 2023

Gold and silver are up about 2% and 5% respectively this week as inflation data came in better than expected, suggesting the Fed is done with rate hikes. CPI came in flat in October and core-CPI hit a 2-year low, rising just 0.2% for the month. Treasury yields plunged while stocks moved in tandem with metals, soaring Tuesday and Wednesday on the promising inflation data as well as strong earnings. The Dow is up 4 days in a row, trading at its highest level since mid-August.

November 1, 2023

Gold and silver rose modestly Wednesday after the Fed’s decision to leave rates unchanged. The Fed emphasized the importance of hitting the 2% inflation target and suggested that could be achieved without further hikes; however, also stated that markets should prepare for interest rates to remain higher for longer than previously projected. Stocks responded positively to both the decision and Powell’s press conference, with the three major indices closing firmly in the green. Bonds rallied this afternoon, dropping yields and further boosting metals and equities.

October 27, 2023

Gold closed above $2,000 for the first time since May as recession fears resurfaced amid less-than-stellar earnings from Wall Street and worries about declining Q4 GDP. The S&P 500 shed 0.5% Friday to enter correction territory, down 10.3% from this year’s high in July. Metals and equities moved in tandem over the past few years, but this week showed a divergence from that trend as escalating tensions in the Middle East and increasing recession worries at home have revitalized their appeal as haven assets.

October 13, 2023

Gold and silver each gained over 5% this week as bond yields fell and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to rise. Stocks were mixed today but closed the week mostly in negative territory as the Israel-Hamas war abroad and inflation data at home leave a lot of uncertainty for investors to digest. Both PPI and CPI were slightly higher than predicted, but the Fed continues to stress patience, suggesting another rate hike this year may not happen.  

October 11, 2023

Gold and silver are trading at 2-week highs as bond yields continue to retreat and geopolitical uncertainty rises as the Israel-Hamas war intensifies. PPI data released today came in higher than expected, driven mostly by energy and food prices. Today’s Fed minutes from their September meeting helped stocks rally as the committee appears cautious about not over-tightening in the coming months—suggesting an additional interest rate hike is becoming less likely this year.

October 4, 2023

Metals rebounded modestly on Wednesday as bond yields pulled back. The 10-year dipped below 4.8% and the 30-year dipped below 5% after reaching a 16-year high earlier in the week. Despite the pullback, metals are still trading near recent lows as the Fed continues to stress that higher rates will be here longer than many expect. Stocks rallied Wednesday to regain some of this week’s losses. The S&P rose 0.81% and the Nasdaq jumped 1.35%.

September 27, 2023

Stocks plunged early Tuesday before rebounding to finish virtually flat after having their worst day in months yesterday as bond yields continue to rise amid more hawkish guidance from the Fed. Metals were hit hard too, with gold dipping to a 6-month low as the 10-year yields ticked above 4.6% to reach a 15-year high. 

September 22, 2023

Gold rose modestly Friday to close virtually flat for the week, right around $1925. Silver rose too, ending the week up 2.1% after a volatile week where the metal swung about $1 between its high and low. Stocks continued their selloff Friday after the Fed signaled a longer-than-anticipated timeframe before rates begin to fall next year. The Dow closed 1.9% down for the week while the S&P 500 fell 2.9%. The Nasdaq, which has been hit hardest by changes in interest rate guidance, finished the week down 3.65%.

 

September 20, 2023

Stocks slid Wednesday after the Fed’s decision to leave rates unchanged. The Dow shed 77 points while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell about 1% and 1.5%, respectively. The drop comes on the increased likelihood of one additional rate hike in 2023 as well as a downward revision of total rate cuts in 2024. Twelve of the nineteen FOMC members believe another hike is necessary this year to hit inflation goals and the committee predicts rates will drop only 0.50% in 2024, versus 1% that was previously anticipated. Gold and silver fell too after the announcement and revised guidance from the Fed, each down about 1% from today’s highs.  

 

September 15, 2023

Metals rebounded Friday to eke out a win for the week. Gold rose 1.2% for the day to close 0.1% in the green for the week and silver gained 2.5% Friday to finish up 0.6% for the week. Stocks slid Friday, leading to weekly declines of 0.16% and 0.38% for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, respectively. The Dow Jones fell nearly 300 points Friday, but remained positive for the week, adding 0.12%. 

 

September 13, 2023

Gold declined Wednesday after CPI data showed a slightly higher-than-expected uptick in inflation for August. Rising oil prices are to blame for most of it, but core CPI came in at 0.3% vs 0.2% expected. A pause in rate hikes is still overwhelmingly expected from the Fed next week, and stocks subsequently shook off the CPI data, closing mixed for the day. The Dow dropped 70 points while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed modestly in the green, up 0.12% and 0.29% respectively.

 

August 29, 2023

Gold and silver rose Tuesday to 3-week highs as job openings dropped to their lowest level since March 2021. Stocks surged too as a cooling labor market helps make the case against further rate hikes. Both metals and equities could be poised to rise higher if PCE and August unemployment data also miss estimates, which investors seem to be betting on given today’s rally. Stocks had one of their best days in months with the Dow gaining nearly 300 points and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq jumping 1.45% and 1.79% respectively.

 
 

August 18, 2023

Gold declined for its fourth consecutive weekly loss, closing at $1,888, finishing the week below $1,900 for the first time since March. Meanwhile, silver eked out a win, gaining $0.06 this week. Gold’s decline came as treasury yields popped, due to somewhat hawkish minutes from the Fed’s July meeting. Stocks closed nearly flat on Friday but finished the week down about 2% as investors weigh recent earnings with the likelihood of higher interest lingering longer than recently predicted based on the tone of last month’s Fed minutes.

August 16, 2023

Metals drifted lower Wednesday after Fed minutes showed a higher-than-expected chance of additional rate hikes in 2023 to combat inflation. Gold is trading near a 5-month low, around $1,892, and silver is trading at $22.45, its lowest level in over 2 months. Stocks traded lower and bond yields ticked up on the Fed minutes. The Dow shed 140 points and the S&P is down 0.6%. The Nasdaq, which has been most impacted by interest rate predictions over the past year, is down 1%.

August 11, 2023

Gold and silver shed 1.5% and 4.1% respectively this week as inflation data did little to ease investors’ minds about further 2023 rate hikes. Both CPI and PPI were relatively tame in July and in line with expectations. However, even as prices continue to cool, the rate at which they are leaves room for further Fed tightening. Stocks closed mixed on Friday, with the Dow up 105 points and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq negative for the day. FOMC minutes from July are due out next week and should provide greater insight into where the Fed stands regarding policy decisions in the coming months.

August 04, 2023

Stocks and metals initially rose Friday on the latest jobs report before retreating into negative territory later in the session. In July, 187,000 jobs were created, which missed expectations and was the lowest level since December 2020. However, wage growth came in higher than expected, rising 4.4% year-over-year, leaving the effects this data will have on Fed policy unclear. The Dow is down 100 points, nearly a 400-point swing from today’s high, and the S&P 500 shed 0.4% heading into the final hour of trading.

July 28, 2023

After Thursday’s post-Fed selloff, metals rebounded to recoup some of their losses on weakening inflation data Friday. CPE rose 3% year-over-year and core CPE came in slightly lower than expected at 4.1% which is its lowest level since September 2021. Stocks surged on the PCE data with the Nasdaq leading the way, up 2% heading into the final hour of trading. The S&P 500 gained 1% and the Dow is up 177 points, or 0.5%.

July 27, 2023

Gold and silver drifted upwards prior to today’s interest rate decision and continued higher after the Fed expectedly raised rates 0.25%. Chairman Powell was relatively vague and non-committal in his press conference, noting the positive inflation data from earlier this month while reemphasizing the FOMC’s commitment to the 2% benchmark. Gold and silver are up about 1.5% and 3% respectively from this week’s lows after the decision. Stocks closed mixed with the S&P virtually flat, the Nasdaq down 0.1%, and the Dow up 82 points. Today is the Dow’s 13th consecutive win, its longest since 1987.

July 24, 2023

Stocks rose Monday across the board ahead of a big week for earnings and an important Fed decision due out on Wednesday. The S&P and Nasdaq gained 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively, and the Dow rose 184 points for its 11th consecutive winning session. The Fed is expected to raise rates 0.25%, but even more important than the decision will be Fed Chair Powell’s tone during his press conference. Metals drifted lower to begin the week but any dovish comments from the FOMC on Wednesday could help gold and silver based on previous meetings this year.

July 19, 2023

Stocks traded modestly higher today as strong bank earnings and weakening inflation make the likelihood of a recession this year continue to fade. Gold and silver are still hovering near recent highs, trading at $1,978 and $25.15, respectively. A rate hike is still expected next week, but a more dovish tone for future guidance is likely if they do raise rates. Metals could continue upward if there is any indication that next week’s increase may be the last from the Fed this year.

July 12, 2023

Both equities and metals jumped Wednesday after CPI data showed inflation cooled in June more than expected. Both CPI and core CPI rose 0.2% and 3.0% year-over-year, missing estimates of 0.3% and 3.1%. Gold hit a 3-week high and is currently trading at $1,958 and silver is up over 4% today, trading above $24.00 for the first time since mid-June. The S&P 500 gained 0.74% and the Nasdaq—which had been hit hardest by rising rates—jumped 1.15% as investors await what this latest inflation data means for Fed policy going forward.

July 07,2023

Gold and silver rose Friday to finish the week in positive territory after June’s jobs report came in mixed with new jobs missing estimates and unemployment ticking down to 3.6%. The slowdown in job growth was enough to give metals a reason to rise, which had been trending negatively since the Fed doubled down on its hawkish tone earlier this week. For the week, gold rose 0.4% and silver gained 1.5%. Stocks are mixed heading into the close with the Dow down 50 points and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 0.2% and 0.4% respectively.

Announcements

5/01/2023
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1/05/2022
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6/29/2021
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